Tag Archives: quantification

Google’s Ngram Viewer exposes Gartner’s Hype Cycles

The Books Ngram Viewer from Google Labs provides a fascinating insight into language usage in the past 200 years. An Ngram is a series of one or more items from a sequence, in this case a word or phrase from a published text. Google’s viewer plots the frequency of occurrence for Ngrams found in books published since 1800. It is possible to narrow the search to specific collections of books or corpus. Available corpora include American English, British English, English Fiction etc. Researchers at Harvard University’s Cultural Observatory have put together some tips for using this data and have invented a new word

Culturomics – The application of high-throughput data collection and analysis to the study of human culture.

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Visualizing the Shrinking World

A corollary of the statement “Time is Money” is that things that cause time to be consumed are money as well – distance is related to time through velocity and information is related to time in the same way through bandwidth. Velocity is a crucial factor in determining the cost of exchanging physical goods and bandwidth is similarly crucial in determining in the cost of exchanging information. In both cases speed costs. The changing relationships between time, distance, information, and money are at the heart of today’s globalization trends.

The cost of a 3-minute transatlantic phone call is an interesting metric since it fixes distance and the amount of information. The graph above comes from a presentation on Globalization by the World Bank. It clearly shows that the cost of a 3-minute call between New York and London has been decaying exponentially over 6 decades. In fact this metric has a half-life of about a decade.

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Comparing the 2001 World Trade Center Attack with the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake

RMS (Risk Management Solutions) is a small US company that specializes in catastrophe models for the insurance industry. These models cover natural perils such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and other windstorms. In 2002 RMS produced a report entitled Accessing Workers Comp Risk from Earthquakes. What if the 1906 Great San Francisco Earthquake occurred today. The point of this report was to draw the attention of catastrophe risk managers in the insurance industry to the potentially high costs of workers compensation in large catastrophes. It also makes fairly sobering reading for people who work in San Francisco.

RMS assumed the replay of the Great Quake would occur at peak office occupancy hours; mid-afternoon, mid-week. The Diagram below shows the relative ground shaking used to calculate potential losses

The following table shows the potential losses in workers compensation from a repeat of the 1906 earthquake compared to equivalent losses from the World Trade Center Attack.

Total Losses 1906 San Francisco Earthquake Repeat World Trade Center Attack
Expected 90% Confidence
Workers Compensation Injuries 37,000 78,000 Unknown
Workers Compensation Deaths 3,000 5,000 2,700
Workers Compensation Insured Loss $3.4 billion $7.1 billion $2.5 – $5.0 billion

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Economics and the Internet’s Large-Scale Topology

Distribution of the Internet around the world. (Top) Worldwide router density map obtained using NetGeo tool to identify the geographical location of 228,265 routers mapped out by the extensive router level mapping effort of Govindan and Tangmunarunkit. (Bottom) Population density map based on the CIESIN’s population data. Both maps are shown using a box resolution of 1 degree by 1 degree. The bar next to each map gives the range of values encoded by the color code, indicating that the highest population density within this resolution is of the order 10**7 people/box, while the highest router density is of the order of 10**4 routers/box. Note that while in economically developed nations there are visibly strong correlations between population and router density, in the rest of the world Internet access is sparse, limited to urban areas characterized by population density peaks.

This graph and the explanation above are taken from Modeling the Internet’s Large-Scale Topology by Soon-Hyung Yook, Hawoong Jeong, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi. Department of Physics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN 46556, USA.

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The Meaning of Invention

I ‘ve been trying to understand what it means to invent something and found this site very useful Wright Brothers History: The Tale of the Airplane A Brief Account of the Invention of the Airplane researched, written, and designed by Gary Bradshaw.

This graph really sums it up. You don’t have to be first but you do have to change the Paradigm.

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